Oregon Housing Construction - Conditions Appear to be Improving

Oregon single family housing permitted for construction in April increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of just under 4,400 units. While significantly lower than historic norms, this was the highest level in 6 months and the second consecutive month of increasing SAAR values. Could this be a sign that the housing construction slump in Oregon has bottomed and beginning a rebound? It’s far too early to know for sure, but we believe the answer is “yes”.

Although our classification of the underlying trend in housing permits is still down, it has improved to “moderately negative” after several months of “strongly negative” trend. Make no mistake; the current employment picture and the associated trend toward higher delinquency in mortgage payments continue to be a drag on economic activity. But it is our opinion that there are clear empirical signs that the trends are beginning to turn in housing construction.

Forefront Economics Inc. has been providing professional consulting services to clients for 15 years, specializing in quantitative market analysis, reporting, statistical analysis, and econometric modeling and forecasting. Consulting services offered by Forefront Economics are designed to help clients make greater use of their operating and customer information to gain competitive advantage. Forefront Economics offers a unique combination of traditional and state-of-the-art analytical tools to help clients gain insights from data.

Contact:
Mark Thompson
Forefront Economics Inc.
503-626-1657
http://housingtrends.forecon.com

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